lest vnp

Might the SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus be the black swan event that puts us past the tipping point? The virus itself, and the disease it causes, Covid-19, is certainly dangerous in its own right (though the actual death rate is not really known because we don't have accurate data on the actual number of cases) I wouldn't worry about it decimating the population. Rather what concerns me is the so-called 'knock-on' effects or the cascade of disruptions to our very brittle economic (and political) systems. Yesterday I went to Costco for some supplies (not toilet paper thank you) and was a little taken aback at the empty shelves where some of my favorite items could generally be found. Our global economy and distributed production/supply chains are vulnerable to disruptions. Like people not working in order to avoid contacting those with the virus. As we have seen over the past week, whole countries and most of the states in the US are ordering lock-downs and self-isolation to "flatten the curve", i.e. prevent the kind of spikes seen in China and now Italy. If people don't work, the work doesn't get done. If the work doesn't get done many people don't get paid, and then they don't buy stuff or pay their rents. The economy comes to a grinding halt.

Unfortunately the way our global means of production and distribution are so strongly interdependent, and thus brittle, if you break anything you break everything. Once this virus begins to subside you cannot just restart everything. We will be lucky if this ends in a 'simple' depression.  But I really don't think that is going to be the playbook. The Great Depression was ended not so much by the onset of WWII but by the fact that we had access to cheap oil and coal to power the reconstruction of industry. WWII just provided the impetus to reconstruct industry rapidly and at the scale that took place. We do not have the luxury of having access to cheap energy now.

《侣行攻略之确认你是我的人》欢乐剧组趣事多-国际在线 - CRI:2021-6-12 · 由谭卓、赵英俊、张磊领衔主演，根据著名爱小说《猴年马月》改编的爱情喜剧电影《侣行攻略之确认你是我的人》将于6月14日全国上映并已全面开启预售。今日电影片方发布了一款“新闻采访”版特辑，视频用新闻播报的口吻加上记者

Humans have, for a very long time, been able to subvert the processes of natural selection that have keep all prior animal populations in check. We have occasionally met with a plague disease that had a temporary impact on the population counts but all of these experiences occurred when populations were separated by distances that kept the diseases from spreading as a global pandemic. Today, globalization and extreme personal mobility has eliminated that checkpoint. We're now learning that the coronavirus is likely to have been transmitted widely before the outbreak in Wuhan, China. The virus has been incubating for a time longer than usual for the flu. And the symptoms of Covid-19 for most people look like colds of mild flu. Thus even when it was starting to show itself we were already behind the eight-ball. The experts are still trying to understand the epidemiological dynamics but one thing is clear, it will take extreme measures to get people to change their behaviors to provide the needed isolation. Just this morning Governor Jay Inslee announced restrictions on large assemblies which will kill a lot of concerts, ComiCon, and other events.

Which leads to another, even less well understood, phenomena that will put severe pressure on even the uninfected. The response to coronavirus is almost certainly going to drag the economic system into depression as mentioned. There is likely to be a complete collapse of the financial system since most businesses as well as most households, and the governments of the world are now deeply in unsustainable debt. Capitalism, even the Chinese version, cannot survive for long without the artificial monetary support having been given by the credit markets. Look at what has been happening to the smaller oil and gas fracking operators who have been depending on debt to keep going. Many (and by the time this is published, perhaps most) will fold for lack of cash. Their operating costs far exceed the price they get for the oil they pump. Say goodbye to the American energy self-sufficiency.

The global, capitalistic economy is an entangled mess of supply chains and labor services. As such it is primed for a domino take-down. It is brittle and resilience or adaptation to the new economic realities would come at a great price for energy, just when we have entered the peak of global production.

And then, on a slightly longer time scale (but within the lifetime of young adults living now) there is the spectre of radical climate chaos. Note that in spite of all of the talk of the last two decades, the greens claiming the potential of transitioning to renewable energy, and the UN insisting that all we need to do is reduce our carbon emissions, neither the energy production of so-called renewables, nor the reductions in carbon emissions have even begun to meet the promise.

《水浒传》在德国：近两百年的遇见与等待_央广网 - cnr.cn:2021-11-22 · 中国四大古典名著中，最早被译介给德国读者的要数《水浒传》。东方学家威廉·硕特（Wilhelm Schott）分别编译了该书的第一回与武松相关的情节，译文先后刊载于《外国文献杂志》（Magazin für die Literatur des Auslandes）1834年第一百三十三期和一百五十三期上，分别题为《洪信历险记》和《为兄报仇的 ...

It looks like humanity might have reached the point at which the Earth will finally reign us in.

Human Nature

I must confess I have been very disappointed in Homo sapiens. We don't deserve the species name, sapiens. We are not very sapient [A Theory of Sapience] (perhaps we should have the species name, 'pre-sapiens' or even 'pseudo-sapiens'). Except for a very few people we could consider as 'wise,' the vast majority of human beings have proven to be quite foolish, and there is evidence that human intelligence and ability to learn and reason about complex issues has actually declined over the past 5,000 to 10,000 years (average braincase sizes have declined by several hundred cubic centimeters - our brains are smaller than our ancestors'). The choices we make on average have been inexorably leading us collectively down a path of increasing over complexity and increasing dysfunction in all of our major (and many minor) institutions.

We are now witness to the rise of truly massive selection forces and seeing natural selection in real-time.

I don't hate humanity. The species evolved as circumstances dictated. We became sentient, then established a foothold on the shore of sapience. We evolved tremendous intelligence and creativity. But we failed to evolve the full promise of sapience which would have provided a self-monitoring (for individuals and societies) and regulating capabilities to keep us from making the choices that led to over-consumption and unrestricted growth. While there have always been a few wise people who have observed and warned us of the dangers of our hubris, since the vast majority of humans were not sufficiently minimally sapient they did not pay attention or heed the warning. And here we are today.

Consequences

I still won't try to predict what will happen exactly; after all a black swan, by definition, is unpredictable. But, I am confident this doesn't end well for most of us. Some of us, including me likely at this point, in the pandemic. But many more are going to face conflict, expulsion from homelands due to climate changes, starvation (same cause), increasingly destructive weather events, and the list goes on. In the end, only a small population of either lucky or wise enough humans will survive. There is still the full cataclysmic scenario of complete extinction, say if the methane bomb goes off (or nuclear bombs). I still don't think it will get to that. My sense of timing tells me that this coronavirus and its demolition of the global capitalist, consumerist economy has come just in time to provide the necessary negative feedback to prevent a full on cataclysm. Of course, for those of us who will face which ever scenario it will certainly seem cataclysmic. But, this is just nature restoring balance so life can get a fresh start, with or without a species of Homo.

In the meantime, try to enjoy the springing forth of life this Vernal Equinox. What else is there to do?

青春期阅读：当网络文学撞上中高考－中考－教育频道－中工网:2021-10-23 · 邮箱登录 通行证登录 网站地图

I hope this finds you well and, at least for now, safe.

When I sat down a few weeks ago to start sketching what I would write about for this post, and after several false starts it dawned on me that there really is nothing much more to say! At least there is nothing really new to say. It seems that all of the kinds of global dangers I have been concerned about for all these years are now sufficiently advanced to be visible to all but the most stubborn willfully ignorant. And there are certainly many of those. Nevertheless, we now have growing movements such as behind Greta and Extinction Rebellion re: climate chaos. There have been a steadily growing number of economists who are starting to question the conventional wisdom regarding capitalism and free markets, if not the conventional theories behind the quasi-science. The public is still being hoodwinked by the oil and gas industries regarding the future of fossil fuel energy production; they have hyped the fracking revolution and American energy independence and the majority of people do not have the physics needed to understand the consequences of fracked well dynamics. So they don't realize that the current abundance of oil and gas is going to be short-lived. But many more people are listening to the experts (some of the same peak oil guys who went underground when fracking started taking hold) and realizing that there are problems afoot. And then there are those who strongly believe that solar and wind are going to save our civilization. If they are willing to look there are a growing number of analyses and reports that provide strong evidence that the economic power production potential for these technologies is just insufficient to run an industrial (even a so-called post-industrial) society that is dependent on the kind of power you get with fossil fuels or nuclear.

Not the kind of person who says 'I told you so, but...' Ok, so I am. But now many-many more voices have been added to the growing cacophony of doomsayers. I expect more people will start taking notice.

Still the majority hold out that some kind of techno-miracle will save our society, pretty much in its current form. Again its a question of pure physics. Stated simply, the kind of society we have right now is not in any way sustainable.

I've just finished a year-long quest for applying systems analysis to a human social system (HSS) design that would be sustainable but organized very differently from what we've grown used to as "normal." The outlines will be the last chapter in my forthcoming book. The last part of the book is devoted to design and engineering of complex adaptive and evolvable systems. So I thought, why not apply it to the HSS? I have written several papers about it for both Russian and Western systems researchers. Guess where the ideas were best relieved.

There is no way we can transition our current society to this more systemic form. We don't have the time even if the general population accepted the idea. So my prediction is still that civilization as we know it will crash (hard). You can already see the dynamics playing out. We're likely just past the peak point in Ugo Bardi's Seneca's Cliff scenario. You know, the Wiley Coyote moment! I hope to get the book out before everything goes to hell, and a few more papers published with the hopes that some remnant of the notion that a systems approach to designing and constructing a viable human society will somehow survive. Some day in the distant future, perhaps a thousand years after the collapse, some survivors in small pockets of relatively stable climate might have the opportunity to do it right the second time around. One thing for sure, they won't be in a position to exploit the kind of power sources we've had. The coal, oil, and natural gas will effectively be gone. And if my theory of evolving sapience holds any water, some of those future beings will be a little bit wiser than the current species.

Enjoy while you can, being mindful to not increase your contributions to the problems (e.g. consumerist living). If you are so inclined (and young enough) join Extinction Rebellion, go out and shut down traffic, get arrested at a protest. It might be fun.

Three Books You Should Read and a Big Question

“回到丛林”：大逃杀设定的生存游戏为何流行 - huanqiu.com:2021-11-21 · 紧接着，网易出品的《荒野行动》安卓版开测。 网易的另一部类似作品《终结者2：审判日》11月4日登陆全平台，预约人数超300万。 不遑多让，腾讯也相继开放《光荣使命》和《CF荒岛特训》两款“吃鸡”手游，《光荣使命》预约人数超过400万，《CF荒岛特训》预约人数则超过了1000万。

Here, of course, means the impending collapse of global civilization, of technologically-based cultures, of the majority of the human population, of the great die-off of species, in short the demise of a significant portion of Earth's biomass.

Though not everyone has given up hope, nor do I suggest that would be a good idea, there is a significant number of people, influencers, thought leaders, etc. who have now publicly acknowledged the threats of global warming. Fewer have realized the nature of the energy crisis, mostly because of the hype surrounding the so-called 'fracking revolution.' But this too figures in the mix of existential threats. Just about the time people get serious about adapting to climate change and sea rise, the energy needed to accomplish the significant amount of work needed will not be available! Ironic, really.

Hoards of climate refugees seeking water to drink and food to eat, let alone adequate shelter, will increasingly find hostile locals in the regions where they seek relief. That is already happening in Europe and the US/Mexico areas. But what is going to really exacerbate things is that the water and food in those regions will be shrinking due to soil depletion, ground water loss, and, of course, increasingly unfavorable climate conditions.

Where we are is in a system (all the parts are connected through various feedback mechanisms) that is suffering from multiple failure modes all at once. But, that begs the question: Why?

To get some background and context there are two books that might be of interest to you. They are actually only representative of a growing literature on the anomalous conditions in our civilization. These books do not answer the Why question, but they do examine the dysfunctions in major social institutions which, in turn, may point to the answer. And, then there is one book that might be seen to provide some response to the Why question.

The first is "Against Democracy" by Jason Brennan. From the book jacket: "Jason Brennan (Ph.D., 2007) is Robert J. and Elizabeth Flanagan Family Professor of Strategy, Economics, Ethics, and Public Policy at the McDonough School of Business, and by courtesy, Professor of Philosophy, at Georgetown University. He specializes in issues at the intersection of politics, philosophy, and economics." Basically Brennan provides some very reasonable arguments for why democracy, representative or otherwise, fails to deliver on the promises it supposedly makes. He does not suggest that any other forms of governance that have been tried, historically, have done any better in terms of providing a social milieu in support of the citizens. In fact, quite the opposite. Rather he promotes something he calls Epistomocracy, meaning governance by the knowledgeable. In order to hold office or even vote for office holders, citizens would have to be provably knowledgeable in subjects of economics and civics (at least). This is not too different from what Jefferson claimed, that democracy depends on the participants to be well-educated, where "well" meant having a grasp of the humanities and not just some technical knowledge. Brennan is a little more specific in terms of what kind of education, but the sentiment is the same. Of course, the problem is that the majority of people in any society are generally ignorant and, it would seem, increasingly stupid as well. They certainly show no propensity to learn from experience, let alone textbooks.

Brennan paints a pretty bleak picture about the prospects of anything we would recognize as true democracy, where all citizens get to participate in politics and governance, if they want. Judging by the political evolution of the major world democracies, with so-called hard-right strongmen winning elections and promoting things like effective plutocracy, it can certainly be argued that Brennan is onto something.

Remember: stupidity and ignorance (including downright rejection of science) prevail.

The second book tackles another sacred cow of the modern world view, capitalism. Capitalism is bigger than democracy. Capitalism can thrive under regimes of autocracy, even presumptive communism! But according to Wolfgang Streek, Director of the Max Planck Institute for Social Research and Professor of Sociology at Cologne University, in "How Will Capitalism End?", capitalism everywhere is already in serious decline and will, as is happening with democracy for political power, fail to deliver the goods. Moreover, capitalism is self-destructing. Marx, of course, famously claimed the same thing. And much of Streek's arguments align with some aspects of Marxism. But there are significant differences and Streek does not see some version of socialism replacing capitalism when the latter falls (Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez notwithstanding). In fact Streek seems to be saying that while something might eventually come along that restores a social political-economy of some kind, he doesn't see anything on the horizon.

The book primarily examines the multiple internal inconsistencies within neoliberal capitalism (as practiced in the West), some of which are also present in, for example, the Russian oligarchic and the Chinese collectivist versions. [Another major problem with capitalism is presented by Naomi Klein in "This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate".] The bottom line in all cases is that the continued production and expansion of capital inherently leads to its own destruction. A simple example of this, one I have written about frequently, is the notion that endless economic (capital) growth is a physical impossibility simply because resources are not infinite and wastes accumulate.

Capitalism and democracy, in the end, should be about the governance of an economic system that supports human existence and they are diametrically opposite in terms of the distributive functions of either. Democracy seeks to distribute the wealth, capitalism seeks to concentrate it in a few hands. They both interact in complex ways (so does plutocracy and collectivist autocracy). Their inherent deficiencies and dysfunctional designs as well as their natural antagonism contribute to each other's destruction. They are holding hands tripping down the path that leads to a cliff in the fog. The so-called leaders are completely clueless - some actually think, for example, that a Green New Deal is a possible solution!

What both books highlight is the role of human stupidity and ignorance as the underlying causal factors in the failures of these two realms. The third book I shamelessly recommend, is my own that attempts to answer the question as to why are human beings so stupid and ignorant? The answer, I claim, has to do with a retardation in what had been the evolution of the cognitive capacity that makes us as human as we are, our capacity for gaining and using wisdom, or sapience. The title is: "A Theory of Sapience: Using Systems Science to Understand the Nature of Wisdom and the Human Mind."
 [note: this penultimate draft will be available for free download for several more months, but Cambridge Scholars Books will be publishing a revised print version shortly and the MAHB library version will be removed. Also you can catch my interview on Doomstead Diner in which I talk a bit about this book.]

My thesis is that there are not just three mental domains, intelligence, creativity, and affect, the classical ones psychologists have studied. There is a fourth (more recently coming under scrutiny in psychology), wisdom. The latter is characterized as superior judgment and intuitions with respect to complex, messy, or wicked social problems. My research found that sapience, the brain capacity to attain wisdom over one's lifetime, depends on several styles or modes of thinking (especially subconscious thinking). These are strong moral sentiments meaning a sense of conscience, strategic, and systems thinking. In a broad survey of the literature on the psychology of wisdom these factors stand out as common to most studies in one form or another. When all four of these factors, judgment, moral sentiment, strategic, and systems thinking are in full bloom, the individual is in a good position to learn from life's experiences and to use that knowledge, that is wisdom, to provide the most helpful solutions to problems. They have learned deep mental models of how the world works, can think in terms of the long-term and the broadest space (strategic), can think systemically about all of the factors and interactions that are involved in the problem, and are strongly motivated to help their fellow humans.

Wisdom is what puts intelligence and creativity to positive work for other humans' benefit. Without it, intelligence and creativity are left to be used as maliciously as we witness in practice. Some of the most evil people (meaning selfish, self-centered, greedy, etc.) who are successful, in a financial sense, are often very clever. They have to be to be devious enough to take advantage of their fellow humans. And those taken advantage of are just not clever enough to recognize it.

《水浒传》在德国：近两百年的遇见与等待_央广网 - cnr.cn:2021-11-22 · 中国四大古典名著中，最早被译介给德国读者的要数《水浒传》。东方学家威廉·硕特（Wilhelm Schott）分别编译了该书的第一回与武松相关的情节，译文先后刊载于《外国文献杂志》（Magazin für die Literatur des Auslandes）1834年第一百三十三期和一百五十三期上，分别题为《洪信历险记》和《为兄报仇的 ...

The problems humanity has created for itself come directly from exercising cleverness to gain convenience and power. No thinking about future consequences. No concern for egalitarian ideals, No sense of how everything affects everything else. We just plow ahead full speed to find new ways to dominate the planet. And so here we are.

Happy Equinox

My thanks to Paul Chefurka for his comments that have prompted me to share some of my more recent thinking. As with Paul's thinking, mine has been evolving. So for what it might be worth...

The hope of which I speak is for the genus Homo, not our current civilization. The later is almost certainly going to collapse and likely come to completion within the next two to three decades. The collapse has already begun as evidenced by global events [some of my earlier musings here]. It is amazing to me how the mainstream media continue to consume the political/economic story about how the economy is doing so well even if growth is slow by historical standards. I take it as just a reflection of how so many people hold out a sense of hope for civilization as we have it today to continue, albeit as a green new deal or even business as usual.

Such hope is misplaced in my view. It will allow people to avoid planning for survival and how to reorganize some semblance of a future social system. Humans are necessarily social creatures and some kind of social system is essentially mandatory for human beings to maintain their humanity. Of course, also in my view, this lack of forethought by the majority of humans will solve the overpopulation problem, painfully. So those persons who do not harbor a false hope, can see that any civilization remotely resembling what we have today is doomed to collapse, will be considering what actions they should take to survive said collapse (or see to it that their offspring have a chance) and be ready to execute their plan [Collapse 3.0]. Realize that neither I nor anyone can tell you what that plan should be. Collapses are, almost by definition, chaos. And in any chaotic dynamic one cannot predict exactly what will happen, or when. The best advice I can give is that one should be vigilant, observe what is happening in the world and, particularly pay attention to the rates of change, and maintain an ability to proactively adapt to the consequences.

I strongly suspect there will be survivors. I also believe the best general approach to survival will involve a group effort; strength in numbers as it were. In all likelihood these groups will survive in pockets. And the most successful will have preserved a variety of hand tools with which they can construct some form of social center. I do not believe humans will return necessarily to pure hunter-gatherer groups. Some form of agriculture will be involved (as long-time readers will know I promote the concepts of permaculture).

Despite the inevitability of collapse of our technological civilization, there are a number of things that society should be doing right now to moderate the rate and severity of the collapse, thus giving some better chances for survival of some. Bear in mind, I do not believe these actions will actually be taken because the extent of true sapience, and the wisdom it entails, in the population, especially the ruling class, is at an absolute minimum. If it were otherwise, these actions would already be undertaken. Or, perhaps, the predicaments we face wouldn't even exist in the first place.

I divide these actions into near-term, intermediate-term, and long-term periods. Some things we need to be doing right now. Others need to be started now but will not show results for a decade or more. And some things, like reorganizing our social systems and our political-economy, represent a transition to a new kind of organization of life itself.

Near-term
These are pretty radical, but absolutely essential just to slow down the rates of change that will be principle drivers of collapse. They all need to be done in parallel. They are all priority one.

The first, and most radical in light of the predominant economic paradigm, we need to cease capitalism and profit-making. That also means ceasing consumption-based commerce. Yes it will destroy the economy. Jobs will be lost but see below for new jobs that would be created. The point is, the economy depends on energy and we get the vast majority of that from burning fossil fuels. This is a simple fact. If you grow the economy, or make profits, you will be producing more greenhouse gas. The economy has to slow way down [those of you familiar with the concept of 'power' will recognize that it is the rate of energy consumption per unit time that is the real culprit here: a slower economic process will consume less overall energy and lower the rate of carbon emissions.] Capitalists must relinquish their cherished notions of growing their wealth. Indeed...

What wealth has been concentrated in the hands of the 10% needs to be confiscated (or at minimum heavily taxed) and used to provide minimal incomes for the bottom 25% and used to help finance the other steps given below. All governments would need to coordinate their tax policies, but all citizens will need to pay up to their abilities. Its gonna cost.

Start building and deploying CO² scrubbers powered by nuclear reactors that produce mineral-absorbed solids, calcium carbonate, for example, that can be safely buried. I know all of the arguments against nuclear given by my green friends but I can't see anything else that can be done from a technological perspective that can begin to have an impact on reducing the carbon loading that already exists. We know that this is actually feasible since we have a whole fleet of nuclear-powered submarines that use such scrubbers to purge CO² from the air so that the subs can remain underwater for months at a time. Building a set of dedicated reactors, like those in the submarines, should be a straightforward job. Deploying these units will be a little more problematic but is not insurmountable. What would be needed for this as well as the other near-term projects (below) will be a super-WWII mobilization effort. It would require diverting much government spending away from current programs. And it would need to be an international cooperative effort. France, the US, and Japan can build the reactors, Germany, Russia, and China can build the scrubbers. And many other NATO and southern hemisphere countries can provide logistics support in getting them transported and installed, operations, and then burying the minerals. There are many additional aspects that would require attention, such as training nuclear engineers and operators.

And, most of all, it would require substantial sacrifices from the citizenry. But it is all technically, logistically, and operationally feasible. Tactically, it is another question. And since there is no strategic thinking going on anywhere in the governments of the world... You can see why I am so pessimistic.

Cease all timber operations, especially in the tropic zones. Begin a massive effort to replant forests in both tropic and temperate zones. Cease all beef production. Allow some dairy but only with grass-fed cows (to reduce their belching and farting!) Start a massive project to restore soils to natural fertility. The forest and soils restoration will involve significant manual labor and lots of jobs. These projects need to be started immediately since their beneficial impact will take time to realize.

There is no way in hell that the political system is going to make these things happen. In all likelihood it will require a takeover by the militaries, a suspension of some liberties, and the establishment of a council of wise elders to provide the strategic leadership that is needed. Anyone know where we could find such people? Hint: with a few notable exceptions don't look at the current class of politicos. They have all pretty much been corrupted by money and power.

自由伊安卓版中文版
One of the primary tasks for the next several decades, if not centuries, will be to ensure the continuation of the work started in the short-term. A key to this will be the revamping of the education system to focus on training for skills needed for survival and for continuing the operations of the CO² abatement and ecosystems restoration projects. Many of these jobs will involve a considerable amount of manual labor, to be sure. But some number of workers will need more advanced technical knowledge and this will help keep our scientific and engineering knowledge relevant and preserved.

Long-term
Over the next century mankind must undertake a project to completely restructure the form of the human social system. This means the structure of how we form communities, how we produce material goods and services, how we exchange these, and, most importantly, how we form a governance subsystem to apply social self-regulation to the whole system. This latter is absolutely necessary in order to maintain a proper relation with the whole of the Ecos. To do this we have many hurdles to overcome, not the least of which is our own innate nature. We are still substantially great apes. Our species did cross a threshold of consciousness in acquiring sapience to the degree we have. But that is not enough. For many centuries now we have been experimenting with forms of governance, cultural norms (mores), and institutions meant to apply social self-regulation in order to reduce our penchant for cut-throat competition and our natural tendencies to let our emotional states be bent by in-group/out-group psychologies [The Evolution of Governance]. We have had some partial successes, thankfully. But so much more needs to be done. The extent of our failings are enshrined in the rise to power of right-wing strongmen like Trump in the US and Bolsonaro in Brazil (to name just a few). These people are motivated by deep-seated hatreds for out-groups and some kind of sense of (delusional) superiority. They, and their followers, are prime examples of the relative weakness of sapience in a large number of our species, a large enough number to have a negative influence on our social discourse.

章莹颖的遭遇，真的与“暗网”有关？_新闻频道_中国青年网:2021-7-24 · 这里就是人性的释放空间，如果你到了那里，看到了那一切的光怪陆离，然后要做的不是沉浸在其中无法自拔，而是摇摇头，回到真实的世界中 ...

How sapience might be increased in the course of time is a somewhat complex proposition. Some of it has to do with culture and acculturation. We humans are already past the threshold of sapience, but how far past that threshold is not known. My claims are based on observations of the current foolishness that I witness in the world. It may be possible that the average human is actually more sapient than I give credit but is hindered in development by the kind of culture in which we live. In that case, there is hope that more people would develop more wisdom in life, if they grew up in a culture that valued and lived wisdom (ancient cultures, for example, venerated elders for their wisdom). Instead of being fed on the promotion of material wealth, if children and young adults lived in a culture of wisdom, perhaps more people would gain wisdom themselves. The problem is the lure of materiality that draws cultures away from that ideal. Modern day Japan is an example. Not that long ago young Japanese children were taught to venerate the elders. But a quick look at the developments in modern Japanese culture suggests that the promotion of wisdom is a thin veneer in a society. Japanese young adults are being very quick to adopt Western cultural standards, which are about as far as one can get from wisdom.

So a cultural environment might help to some degree. Nurture might provide part of the answer. But I am strongly of the opinion (not, I should hasten to say, backed up by data but only observations!) that the genetic propensities for the biological aspects, the genetic basis for brain development of sapience, is at fault. You can read most of my arguments for this position here which is a short version of my forthcoming book on the subject that will be available soon - announcement shortly).

In the long-run, we humans will need to address the genetic basis of sapience and explore the potentials it has evolutionarily. I have become convinced that our brains can evolve further to produce a much superior form of sapience and, thus, a much greater capacity for acquiring wisdom - veridical knowledge of how the world works. This does not necessarily translate into an increase in overall size (childbirth is already a painful act). If my conjectures regarding the part of the prefrontal cortex responsible for the management of sapience is correct, then it will be the relative sizes of that area (called Brodmann area 10) compared with other cortical areas that will produce the increase. This can be managed not by necessarily evolving new cell types, but by the developmental program governing that area either starting its development sooner in fetal life, or keeping it going longer, or both. That means that a minor change in the governing network of genes would be all that is necessary.

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How this is to be accomplished is subject to much conjecture. I am not in a position to prescribe a pathway. It may entail genetic engineering (now that we have the CRISPR technology!) or selective breeding (assortative mating). Who knows? It may involve all of the above and more. But one thing is very clear to me. Humanity must actively seek to further its own evolution beyond mere sapience. Its great that we have language and can talk to one another. But the content of our speech must be valuable and lead to better outcomes with respect to our service to the planet and consequent sustainability as a genus.

These days my interests have turned to thoughts about what an ideal social system for humanity might look like and how it might evolve. This comes out of an exercise to systemically analyze our current condition and apply some of my findings from a systems analysis of things like naturally occurring "economies" (e.g., metabolism in cells) and "governance" (brains) systems. Nature is replete with examples of evolved organization that we should consider when thinking about the human condition and future.

Let me recommend an excellent book by Tyler Volk at NYU called "Quarks to Cultures: How We Came to Be", Columbia University Press, New York. Tyler paints a very clear picture of the universal evolution of higher and higher complexity in stages of organization that is very similar to what I have termed "ontogenesis", he calls it "combogenesis". He and I have started a conversation about what we think the next stage (after nation-states) might entail, what kind of humans will be involved, what sort of social system they will have, and how the collective of humanity might actually provide something like a planet-scale consciousness (become the brain of Gaia!).

I'll be exploring this more in blogs to come, I think.

Happy Solstice everybody.

I don't know what else to say. I had started a piece taking an inventory of beliefs and ideologies that underlie the major pathologies in our socioeconomic system, things like belief in free markets. But it was getting way too long even without explanations of why they were pathological. However, I have written at length about all of them in the past so you will find blogs about subjects like "profits" and "human rights" and read the discussions there.

What I had thought to do was to remind everyone why our societies, western and eastern, northern and southern alike are failing in providing a meaningful life for all humans without destroying the ecosystem. We are in a no-win scenario. Most people on the planet are either already in poverty or many are headed in that direction with the pace accelerating. I have mentioned before the fact that I am seeing more homeless people in the neighborhood where I work as time goes on.

There are too many of us. Our access to free energy is being strangled. The pollution from our prior use of energy is converting our climate into a nightmare. Water is becoming a serious issue in many places. Climate-forced conflict and migration has become plainly visible. And on and on.

Over the last three decades I developed a true systems analysis process (which I will publish in my next book) and applied it to the human social system and its subsystems. And I applied it to humanity itself. What I have found is a species embedded in a cultural cocoon that has broken free of the normal bounds for living systems in ecosystems. But also, a species that has just recently undergone a transition to what I think is the next stage of evolution - from the great apes to a sapient (or perhaps pre-sapient) but clever one capable of creating and developing more powerful ways to extract material goods from the environment. We are an evolutionary experiment that could go either way.

One thing I am sure of. The socioeconomic system we currently have is completely unsustainable. But there will have to be some further development in the human brain in order for a species of humans to regroup and have any kind of society at all.

Meanwhile I have a book recommendation. Tyler Volk's "Quarks to Culture: How We Came to Be" is one of the best systems books I have ever read. He describes the process of becoming systems (emergence) he calls combogenesis which is essentially the same as my ontogenesis (generation of ontological elements from chapter 10 in my Principles book) and the grand sequence of levels of organization (from quarks all the way up to cultures of human societies). Enjoy.

Longer days are coming.